The Art of
Weather Forecasting
By Fred Gielow
I think it's instructive to review, briefly, predictions concerning the 2006 hurricane season.
Live Science: [December 6, 2005.] The 2006 forecast calls for: 17 named tropical storms - an average season has 9.6; 9 hurricanes compared to the average of 5.9; 5 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 110 mph - average is 2.3.
NOAA News: NOAA today [May 22, 2006] announced to America and its neighbors throughout the North Atlantic Region that a very active hurricane season is looming, and encouraged individuals to make preparations to better protect their lives and livelihoods.
PHYSORG: [May 24, 2006.] The hurricane forecasting model developed by University of Rhode Island and NOAA scientists - the most accurate model used by the National Hurricane Center over the last three years - has been improved for the 2006 hurricane season to incorporate the phenomenon responsible for intensifying Hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year.
Live Science: [June 1, 2006.] NOAA forecasts 13 to 16 named tropical storms and eight to 10 hurricanes this year in the Atlantic Basin...
Associated Press: The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season should be slightly less active than originally predicted, but still above long-term averages, federal forecasters said Tuesday [August 8, 2006] as they warned coastal residents not to let their guard down. Forecasters now expect there to be 12-15 named storms and seven to nine hurricanes, three to four of which could be major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, the National Hurricane Center and other National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agencies said.
Associated Press: Hurricane expert William Gray downgraded his forecast for the 2006 Atlantic storm season again Tuesday [October 3, 2006], predicting one more hurricane, two more named storms, but no intense hurricanes. The new report calls for a below-average hurricane season, with a total of six hurricanes and 11 named storms.
Let's recap: With their "improved" forecasting computer modeling software, state-of-the-art sensors and equipment, and all their wisdom and experience, our most-respected scientists, just six months prior to the start of the hurricane season, made a spectacularly incorrect prediction of what was to come. They demonstrated, impressively, they have absolutely no idea what they're talking about when it comes to predicting weather patterns.
Nevertheless, some of these same folks repeatedly stand before the microphones and TV cameras, with serious expressions on their faces, and assure us they are completely confident global warming will result in the Earth's temperature rising 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100!
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