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The Leipzig Declaration As independent scientists researching atmospheric and climate problems, we -- along with many of our fellow citizens -- are apprehensive about the Climate Treaty conference scheduled for Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997. This gathering of politicians from some 160 signatory nations aims to impose -- on citizens of the industrialized nations, but not on others -- a system of global environmental regulations that include quotas and punitive taxes on energy fuels. Fossil fuels provide today's principal energy source, and energy is essential for all economic growth. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide -- the announced goal of the Climate Treaty -- would require that fuel use be cut by as much as 60 to 80 percent -- worldwide! In a world in which poverty is the greatest social pollutant, any restriction on energy use that inhibits economic growth should be viewed with caution. We understand the motivation to eliminate what are perceived to be the driving forces behind a potential climate change; but we believe the emerging Kyoto protocol -- to curtail carbon dioxide emissions from only part of the world community -- is dangerously simplistic, quite ineffective, and economically destructive jobs and standards-of-living. More to the point, we consider the scientific basis of the 1992 Global Climate Treaty to be flawed and its goal to be unrealistic. The policies to implement the Treaty are, as of now, based solely on unproven scientific theories, imperfect computer models -- and unsupported assumptions that catastrophic global warming follows from the burning of fossil fuels and requires immediate action. We do not agree. We believe that the dire predictions of a future warming have not been validated by the existing climate record. These predictions are based on nothing more than theoretical models and cannot be relied on. As the debate unfolds, it has become increasingly clear that -- contrary to the conventional wisdom -- there does not exist today a general scientific consensus about the importance of greenhouse warming from rising levels of carbon dioxide. In fact, many climate specialists now agree that actual observations from weather satellites show no global warming whatsoever -- in direct contradiction to computer model results. Historically, climate has always been a factor in human affairs -- with warmer periods, such as the medieval "climate optimum," playing an important role in economic expansion and in the welfare of nations that depend primarily on agriculture. Colder periods have caused crop failures, and led to famines, disease, and other documented human misery. We must, therefore, remain sensitive to any and all human activities that could affect future climate. However, based on all the evidence available to us, we cannot subscribe to the politically
inspired world view that envisages climate catastrophes and calls for hasty actions. For this
reason, we consider the drastic emission control policies likely to be endorsed by the Kyoto
conference -- lacking credible support from the underlying science -- to be ill-advised and
premature.
This statement is based on the International Symposium on the Greenhouse Controversy, held in Leipzig, Germany on November 9-10, 1995, under the sponsorship of the Prime Minister of the State of Saxony. For further information, contact the Europaeische Akademie fuer Umweltfragen (fax: 011-49-7071-72939) or The Science & Environmental Policy Project in Fairfax, Virginia (fax: (703) 352-7535). Or visit the website <http://www.his.com/~sepp>. Next Article | Table of Contents>Signers:
Abrams, Elliot - Penn State University Apel, John - John Hopkins University Aubrey, David - Woods Hole Ocean. Inst. Badura, Leslaw - Univ. Kattositz, Polland Balling, Robert - Arizona State University Barrett, Jack - Kingston-upon-Thames, U.K. Bauer, Ernst-Waldemar - Esslingen, Germany Berg, Hermann - Sachsisch Akad., Jena, Germany Berning, Warren - New Mexico State University Boe, Bruce A. - Atm. Resource Brd. ND Bottcher, C.J. Frits, The Hague Bourne, Arthur - University of London Bruce, Larry Brown, Norman M.D., University of Ulster Bye, Matthew - Meterologist, San Francisco Cain, Joseph - Florida State University Clube, S.V.M. - University of Oxford Courtney, Richard - Epsom, U.K. Csanady, G.T - Old Dominion University Cunningham, Robert M. - Meterologist, Lincoln, MA Decker, Fred - Meterologist, Corvalis, OR de Freitas, Chris, University of Auckland Del Re, Giuseppe Rom. Dietze, Peter - Nurnberg, Germany Dyer, Rosemary - Phillips Lab Eddington, Lee W., Naval Air Warfare Center Ellsaesser, Hugh - Livermore National Laboratory Emsley, John, Imperial Collage Frank, Neil - Fmr. Dir. Hurricane Center Franzle, Otto - Univ. Kiel, Germany Gaynor, John E. - Envir. Tech. Lab., Boulder, CO Gerholm, Tor Ragnar - Univ of Stockholm Gleeson, Thomas A. - Aeronomist, Florida State Univ. Gold, Thomas - Cornell University Goodell, H.G. - University of Virginia Goodridge, James D. - Climatologist, Mendocino, CA Groeber, Richard F. - Weather Service, Springfield, OH Guttman, Nathaniel B. - Climate Center, Asheville, NC Hales, J. Vern - Meterologist, Las Vegas, NV Handler, Paul, University of Illinois Harnapp, Vern, University of Akron Hayden, Howard C. - Univ. of Connecticut Heyke, H.H. - Lichtenwalde, Germany Higastberger, Michael J. - University of Vienna Hogan, A.W. - Jour. of Aerosols, Atm. Chem. Hubbard, William, University of Arizona Jaworski, Zbigniew, University of Warsaw Kloke, Adolf - University of Berlin Kohler, Max A. - Meterologist, Silver Spring, MD Kolstad, George A. - Geophys., Laytonsville, MD Korber, Erich - Univ. Tubingen, Germany Kovach, Robert L. - Stanford University Landscheidt, Theodor, Nova Scotia Leep, Roy - Meterologist, Tampa, FL Legates, David R. - University of Oklahoma Lettau, Heinz H. - University of Wisconsin Linden, Henry R. - Illinois Inst. of Technology Lindzen, Richard, Mass. Inst. of Technology Lischka, Gerd - Univ. Tubingen, Germany Lodge, J.P. - Atmos. Chemist, Boulder, CO Lunardini, Virgil, CRREL, Hanover, NH Lunsford, R. Dwayne, Germantown, MD Marquardt, Karl - Dornstadt-Auhausen, Germany McVehil, George E. - Air Quality, Englewood, CO Mellner, Dusan - Univ of Brno, Czech Republic Metzner, Helmut - Tubingen, Germany Michaels, Patrick - University of Virginia Mitchell, William, Oxford University Moene, Asmunn, Oslo, Norway Mohry, Herbert - Leipzig, Germany Neumann, Eberhard - Univ. Bielefeld, Germany Nierenberg, William A. - Scripps Inst., LaJolla Nolte, Dieter - Stadt, Krankenhaus, Reichenhall, Germany Oberhammer, Heinz - Univ, Tubingen, Germany Porch, William - Colorado State University Priem, Harry, University Of Utrecht Reifsnyder, W.E. - Yale University Robertson, Alexander, Univ. Of Newfoundland Schmidlin, Thomas, Kent State University Schuh, William, ND State Water Comm. Seitz, Frederick - Rockefeller University Sestak, Zdnek - Univ of Prague Sharp, Gary D., Ctr for Climate/Ocean Resource Study Singer, Fred - Science & Environmental Policy Project Stange, Karl - Ludwigshafen, Germany Starheim, Fred, Kent State University Starr, Chauncey - Electrical Power Research Inst., Palo Alto Steinmetz, E. - Essen, Germany Stevenson, Robert E., IFARNS/IAPSO Stout, Glenn E. - University of Illinois Stroke, George - Max Planck Inst., Munich Sundermann, Heinz - University of Vienna Sussman, Brian - Meterologist, San Francisco, CA Sutton, George H. - Prof. Emeeritus, Univ of Hawaii Svidersky, Vladimir - Sechonoc Institute, Moscow Talwani, M. - Rice University Torrance, Thomas F. - Jena, Germany Van Sumere, Christaan - Univ of Gent, Belgium Vonnegut, Bernard - SUNY, Albany Wentworth, Robert C., Geoophys. Oakland, CA Worzel, J. Larmar - Meterologist, Wilmington, NC Wyrtki, Klaus, University of Hawaii Zwiener, Ulrich - Univ. Jena, Germany
Meteorologists Apuzzo, Richard, WXIX-TV Bernier, Andre, WJW-TV Bernier, Sally, WJW-TV Breckm, Robert, WVUE-TV Colby, A.J., WICU-TV Frank, Neil, KHOU-TV Gantz, Dick, Weather Forecasting Service Goddard, Dick, WJW-TV Hollett, Shane, WJW-TV Johnson, Mark, WEWS-TV Koontz, Mark, WJW-TV Leep, Roy, WTVT-TV Loufman, Jon, WKYC-TV Maly, Dan, WOIO-TV McPike, Ryan, WICU-TV Moore, James T., KSWO-TV Sussman, Brian, KGO-TV Sussman, Brad, WEWS-TV Watts, Anthony, HSL-TV Webster, Don, WEWS-TV Westfall, Brian, Weather Forecasting Service Williams, Jerry A., Meteorologist Consultant |